Longevity pattern in Emilia Romagna (Italy) in a dynamic perspective

Roli, Giulia ; Miglio, Rossella ; Rettaroli, Rosella ; Samoggia, Alessandra (2010) Longevity pattern in Emilia Romagna (Italy) in a dynamic perspective. [Preprint]
Full text available as:
[thumbnail of Paper.pdf]
License: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 (CC BY-NC 3.0)

Download (5MB) | Preview


In this paper, we investigate the pattern of longevity during the last 15 years in Emilia Romagna, a North-Eastern region of Italy, at a municipality level. We consider a specific index of extreme longevity based on people aged 95 and over in two different periods (1995-1999 and 2005-2009). Spatio-temporal modeling is used to tackle at both periods the random variations in the occurrence of people 95+, due to the increasingly rareness of such events, especially in small areas. This method exploits the spatial proximity and the consequent interaction of the geographical areas to smooth the observations, as well as to control for the effects of a set of regressors. As a result, clusters of areas characterized by high and low indexes of longevity are well identified and the temporal evolution of the phenomenon can be depicted. In a parallel analysis, we consider the past levels of mortality on the same cohort of individuals reaching 95 years and over in the second period and when they were aged 80-89 and 90-99. Within this longitudinal framework, the longevity outcome is modeled by a spatial regression. The area-specific structures of mortality are included as regressors, whose effects represent the causal link between the occurrence of people 95+ and the causes of death in the same cohort.

Document type
Roli, Giulia
Miglio, Rossella
Rettaroli, Rosella
Samoggia, Alessandra
centenarian rate, hierarchical Bayesian models, longevity, small areas, spatial and spatio-temporal models
Deposit date
27 Jan 2010 09:26
Last modified
31 Dec 2014 06:00

Other metadata

This work may be freely consulted and used, may be reproduced on a permanent basis in a digital format (i.e. saving) and can be printed on paper with own personal equipment (without availing of third -parties services), for strictly and exclusively personal, research or teaching purposes, with express exclusion of any direct or indirect commercial use, unless otherwise expressly agreed between the user and the author or the right holder. It is also allowed, for the same purposes mentioned above, the retransmission via telecommunication network, the distribution or sending in any form of the work, including the personal redirection (e-mail), provided it is always clearly indicated the complete link to the page of the Alma DL Site in which the work is displayed. All other rights are reserved.



Staff only: View the document