Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the pattern of longevity during the last 15 years in Emilia Romagna, a North-Eastern region of Italy, at a municipality level. We consider a specific index of extreme longevity based on people aged 95 and over in two different periods (1995-1999 and 2005-2009). Spatio-temporal modeling is used to tackle at both periods the random variations in the occurrence of people 95+, due to the increasingly rareness of such events, especially in small areas. This method exploits the spatial proximity and the consequent interaction of the geographical areas to smooth the observations, as well as to control for the effects of a set of regressors. As a result, clusters of areas characterized by high and low indexes of longevity are well identified and the temporal evolution of the phenomenon can be depicted. In a parallel analysis, we consider the past levels of mortality on the same cohort of individuals reaching 95 years and over in the second period and when they were aged 80-89 and 90-99. Within this longitudinal framework, the longevity outcome is modeled by a spatial regression. The area-specific structures of mortality are included as regressors, whose effects represent the causal link between the occurrence of people 95+ and the causes of death in the same cohort.