A tail of labor supply and a tale of monetary policy

Cantore, Cristiano ; Mumtaz, Haroon ; Ferroni, Filippo ; Theophilopoulou, Angeliki (2025) A tail of labor supply and a tale of monetary policy. Bologna: Dipartimento di Scienze economiche, p. 71. DOI 10.6092/unibo/amsacta/8501. In: Quaderni - Working Paper DSE (1210). ISSN 2282-6483.
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Abstract

We study the interaction between monetary policy and labor supply decisions at the household level. We uncover evidence of heterogeneous responses and a strong counter-cyclicality of hours worked in the left tail of the income distribution following a monetary policy shock in the U.S. Specifically, while aggregate hours and labor earnings decline after a monetary tightening, individuals at the bottom of the income distribution increase their hours worked. Moreover, this positive labor supply response is quantitatively significant, substantially dampening the decline in aggregate hours worked. We show that the empirical patterns are consistent with a standard one-asset HANK model featuring endogenous labor supply. The model reveals that strong income effects at the bottom of the distribution can account for the observed countercyclical labor responses, highlighting how labor supply adjustments act as an additional margin through which households smooth consumption. Comparing this specification to a model with a homogeneous labor supply, we find that labor supply heterogeneity reduces the aggregate MPC and attenuates the transmission of monetary policy through aggregate demand. As a result, the output cost of disinflation is lower in economies where poorer households can flexibly adjust their labor effort, easing the trade-off faced by the central bank.

Abstract
Document type
Monograph (Working Paper)
Creators
CreatorsORCIDAffiliationROR
Cantore, Cristiano0000-0002-4837-2140Department of Economics and Law of Sapienza University of Rome
Mumtaz, Haroon0000-0002-4761-7767School of Economics and Finance. Queen Mary, University of London
Ferroni, Filippo0000-0002-0246-0567University of Bologna, Department of Economics
Theophilopoulou, Angeliki0000-0001-5828-928XDepartment of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London
Keywords
Monetary policy, Household Survey, FAVARs, HANK
Subjects
ISSN
2282-6483
DOI
Deposit date
05 Sep 2025 12:55
Last modified
05 Sep 2025 12:55
URI

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